Recent Commentaries

“Insurance Guidance” more likely than “Insurance Cuts”

Market expectations for an early-summer Fed policy easing are running high, even while the core of the FOMC has been offering up only a contingent form of dovish rhetoric. The messages from Powell, Clarida, Williams, and Evans post the Chicago Fed framework conference...

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Fed Policy vs Trade Policy: It’s Not Even A Contest

It’s so depressing to watch the world of mainstream economic punditry try to blame its epic 2019 forecasting failures on trade policy changes. The number of high-profile folks who were in the 3.5% to 4% 10yr note camp, as well the 3 to 4 rate-hike camp, for 2019 who...

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