“Insurance Guidance” more likely than “Insurance Cuts”

Market expectations for an early-summer Fed policy easing are running high, even while the core of the FOMC has been offering up only a contingent form of dovish rhetoric. The messages from Powell, Clarida, Williams, and Evans post the Chicago Fed framework conference...

Fed Policy vs Trade Policy: It’s Not Even A Contest

It’s so depressing to watch the world of mainstream economic punditry try to blame its epic 2019 forecasting failures on trade policy changes. The number of high-profile folks who were in the 3.5% to 4% 10yr note camp, as well the 3 to 4 rate-hike camp, for 2019 who...

Blame in on the t t t t t trade war

It’s been a week since the all-but-certain US-China trade deal collapsed. And while there were some initial jitters as the news hit, markets have calmed – with little noticeable cumulative impact. The message from the price action has been quite clear – FADE TRADE –...

Those were the best days of my life

I want to quickly discuss three topics today: the escalation in trade tensions, Fed communications on inflation, and the recent swath of Goldilocks economic data releases. But first just a quick shout-out for one of our clients, Doubleline Capital. I recently joined...

Do rate cuts or QE have a larger impact on inflation expectations?

Of course the answer depends on both levels and magnitudes. Let’s begin with magnitudes – that’s easy. I think it would be reasonably safe to say that $2 trillion in QE causes inflation expectations to rise more than a 25bps rate cut; and alternatively, 200bps of rate...

Overheating to Underheating, Dumb to Dumber

First up, a bit of housekeeping. On May 8th in NYC my good friend David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff and I will be discussing our “Global Macroeconomic Outlooks.” Another good friend, Julia LaRoche from Yahoo Finance, will be moderating. Over the years David and I have...

Are you ready for the Big Crash???

That’s probably not a subject header you expected to see float across your inbox beside my name. But longtime readers probably recall when I used this exact tongue-in-cheek title for a commentary way back in January 2014. And today I want to argue that the basic...

Is it time to release the blue seagulls?

Have a quick read of this excerpt from a note I penned back in June 2017, entitled The Terminal Funds Rate: [G]rowth should surprise on the upside; inflation should surprise to the downside; and relative investment decisions should begin to favor the US. And to be...
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