This pivot is much more about inflation than growth

There is no need to spend much time on all the nuanced changes within the March FOMC statement and projections. It suffices to say that every alteration was dovish. But keep in mind that none of the SEP estimates for GDP, inflation, or unemployment over the course of...

A Flo Rida market structure

I decided to channel a little Flo Rida today by presenting the 8 “lows” which best describe the current US macroeconomic and financial market landscape: Low inflation Low unemployment Low rates Low curve Low vol Low issuance Low spreads Low volumes That pretty much...

Release the Seagulls

With an epic first two months of 2019 trading in the books, it’s probably time for a little reflection. Spoos went out just above +12% ytd with blues unchanged!! Last year’s loss of a little less than 5% on our long-standing risk parity strategy now feels like a minor...

New Swag For 2019

March 2019 will mark two full years with the US unemployment rate below the CBO estimate of the NAIRU. And it hasn’t been just a minor dip through this 4.6% “equilibrium” level. For the last 12 months the unemployment rate has averaged 3.9%, and for the last 24 months...

Monetary Malpractice

On Dec 19th the Fed’s measure of 5-year forward, 5-year inflation expectations was at 1.83%. It had fallen steadily since the early autumn peaks of 2.20%; however, in the December FOMC statement there was no mention of this substantial drop. Instead, Jay was busy...

Where are all the 3.5–4% peeps now??

So far, 2019 has not been kind to those with bearish proclivities. In the first four weeks of 2019 spoos are up about 6%, while spoos & blues (under my standard weightings) gained about 5.5%. These moves more than reverse all the 2018 losses for both straight...

Fifty Shades of Jay

It has been nearly three weeks since I wrote a new commentary. Over that time the markets calmed, the Fed messaged a pause, and there really hasn't been much new for me to say. I had spent the last four months trying to convince our clients that Jay’s random bouts of...

CNBC this morning

Here are some bullets for my market discussion on CNBC: 1. Many in the markets are attributing the recent bout of volatility to the federal government shutdown. That is likely a mistake. We have had 22 shutdowns over the last 40 odd years with very limited market...

The Williams Put??

John William’s interview earlier today on CNBC should be a lesson to Jay on how to bring a little humility into the monetary policy arena. John’s diplomatic tone with regard to listening to market signals, speaking to business leaders, and watching the economic data...